• Market Review and Outlook

  • If you “sold in May and went away”, as the saying goes, you would have missed out on another positive month, albeit a minor one. The market proves to be resilient, and political turmoil in Washington and global uncertainty appear to be the only obstacles to continued growth. We witnessed a one-day Dow decline of 373 points mid-month as a result of concern regarding the fate of tax reforms and stimulus. But this single day drop – the worst since last September – was quickly erased.  Another negative factor in the market’s performance was attributed to the [...]

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    The end of April coincided with the completion of President Trump’s first 100 days in office. Many of the President’s campaign promises, such as the replacement of Obamacare, have yet to transpire, and the tax proposal unveiled last week appeared to lack substance. Nonetheless, the markets have held steady and maintained the gains that began last November. The market closed the month of April with modest gains. The Nasdaq rose 2.3%, the Dow finished up 1.3%, the Russell 2000 gained 1.05%, and the S&P 500 squeaked out a .91% increase.  Investors largely ignored weak [...]

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    The markets in March performed like the adage “in like a lion, out like a lamb”, as we finally saw a negative month for both the Dow and S&P 500, the first since last October. The Dow finished down -1.63% and the S&P 500 declined -.86%. On March 21st the Dow tumbled 237 for its first correction of more than one percent since last September. This decline was a contributor to an eight-day losing streak in the Dow, last witnessed in 2011. While March’s performance slowed the melt-up that started last November, the major indices managed to produce gains for the quarter. [...]

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    The markets in March performed like the adage “in like a lion, out like a lamb”, as we finally saw a negative month for both the Dow and S&P 500, the first since last October. The Dow finished down -1.63% and the S&P 500 declined -.86%. On March 21st the Dow tumbled 237 for its first correction of more than one percent since last September. This decline was a contributor to an eight-day losing streak in the Dow, last witnessed in 2011. While March’s performance slowed the melt-up that started last November, the major indices managed to produce gains for the quarter. [...]

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    During the month of February the markets continued the “melt-up” that began with the Trump election last November. The S&P 500 closed at record highs for 12 days in a row, the longest streak since 1987. The “Trump bump” grew despite uncertainty regarding policy changes to Obamacare, taxes, immigration, energy, and financial services regulations. The Dow again broke through the psychological 20,000 barrier, but has now held that level and set its sights on the next milestone – Dow 25,000. While the specific proposed tax changes are still unclear, it appears any[...]

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    The markets in the first month of 2017 continued the melt-up that began with the unexpected Trump victory last November. The “Trump bump” came about as the new administration’s proposals were interpreted as favorable to business and the economy. Specifically, the tax cuts and infrastructure proposals provided the spark for the continued upward market movement and resulted in the Dow finally breaching and briefly maintaining the psychological 20,000 barrier. The proposal to lower the maximum individual tax bracket from 39.6% to 33% is likely to put more money in the pockets of[...]

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    The markets in 2016 were a rollercoaster of ups and downs. The year began with the MSCI World index losing 2% on the first day of trading, while the US market recorded its worst-ever yearly start. Concern about the Chinese economy sent India and Japan into bear markets in the first two months of the year. Before June oil reached a 13-year low and the dollar slid to its weakest level in a year. Then despite the Brexit shock and the unexpected Trump victory much of that all reversed. Until the last week of the month, the Dow had 7 consecutive week of gains as the Trump/Santa Claus rally had the [...]

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